Tracking Queensland’s long term unemployment rate.
Campbell Newman has left the office of Queensland Premier with the trend unemployment rate up 1 percentage point over his term. Unemployment was 5.5 percent in March of 2012 but with the most recent jobless figures show it is currently at 6.5 percent for January of 2015. 162,800 Queenslanders are currently unemployed as opposed to 137,700 in March 2012.
Queensland Treasury and Trade notes for January, “Trend employment in Queensland rose by 1,600 persons (0.1%) in January 2015 (see Chart 1). This result was driven by a 4,400 person increase in full-time employment, with a
fourth consecutive monthly rise in female full-time workers. Consistent with this shift towards full-time employment, trend aggregate hours worked in Queensland has increased over the past three months”: Labour Force, January 2015.
The trend participation rate, the number of people engaged in the workforce, remained at 65.2pc. In December, Treasury noted that, “The trend participation rate continued to edge lower, down 0.1 percentage point in December 2014, to 65.2%. Queensland’s trend participation rate has fallen 1.1 percentage points over the past seven months, to its lowest rate since late 2004.”
Greg Jericho writes, “Young people are not giving up on work, despite high unemployment – More young people are either in the workforce or education than ever before, making the Coalition’s ‘earn or learn’ crackdown unwarranted”: Young people are not giving up on work, despite high unemployment.
Amy Remeikis reports, “Queensland lost more jobs in the past month as retailers shed casual holiday staff, raising the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 6.2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. That equates to about 7100 people losing their job in the past month.The trend data showed a little improvement, dropping from 6.6 per cent in December to 6.5 per cent”: Queensland unemployment rate rises.
Below is the long term data reflected in graphical form. All data is based on ‘Labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade.
All regional data comes from ‘Regional labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade and generally follows a week behind the general data.
Politicians frequently switch between trend and seasonally adjusted data based on which is more favourable to them. As reflected below, seasonally adjusted data tends to be more erratic than trend. Gaps in seasonally adjusted data appear below due to glitches in the Australian Bureau of Statistics calculation methods.
The acronyms FTE and PTE refer to full-time employment and part-time employment respectively.
Queensland’s trend unemployment fell to 6.5pc.
The January trend figure for unemployment was fell from 6.6pc to 6.5pc. There was a 0.3pc rise in FTE and a -0.4pc fall in PTE.
Queensland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January was revised up from 6.1pc to 6.2pc. For December, the unemployment rate rose from 6.2pc to 6.5pc. FTE fell -0.8pc but PTE rose 0.9pc.
Trend Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
In trend terms for January, the trend gain of FTE was 4,400 but PTE loss was 2800. The net gain was 1600 jobs.
Seasonally adjusted Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Seasonally adjusted, Queensland lost 13,000 FTE jobs for January but gained 5,900 PTE for a net loss of 7,100 jobs. (Due to a glitch at the ABS, there was no data supplied for September job creation).
Trend Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Australia’s trend participation rate remained stable at 64.6pc. Queensland also remained unchanged at 65.2pc, the lowest rate in a decade.
Seasonally adjusted Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Seasonally adjusted participation rate for Australia remained at 64.8pc while Queensland participation rate was revised up to 65.4pc before falling to 65.3pc.
Trend Queensland labour force to Australian labour force.
In terms of trend Labour force, Australia rose by 18,800 persons and Queensland rose by 400 persons.
Employment growth, trend, yearly percentage change
Unemployment by region
This graph shows the worst unemployment regions of Queensland. Wide Bay rose from 9.6pc to 10.1pc. Moreton Bay – North fell from 9.0pc to 8.9pc. Ipswich fell from 9.0pc to 8.6pc. Cairns fell from 8.0pc to 7.9pc. The Sunshine Coast fell from 7.4pc to 7.3pc.
Unemployment rate by region
With the regional average unemployment at 6.4pc, all of the following remain above the state average; Wide Bay rose from 9.6pc to 10.1pc. Moreton Bay – North fell from 9.0pc to 8.9pc. Ipswich fell from 9.0pc to 8.6pc. Townsville rose from 8.5pc to 8.6pc. Logan – Beaudesert rose from 8.1pc to 8.4pc. Cairns fell from 8.0pc to 7.9pc. The Sunshine Coast fell from 7.4pc to 7.3pc.
Annual change in employment by region
On an annual basis,
Logan – Beaudesert region lost 13,100 FTE & 2,100 PTE for a total loss of 15,300 jobs with unemployment rising from rose from 8.1pc to 8.4pc.
Wide Bay region lost 4,600 FTE and lost 3,000 PTE for total loss of 7,600 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 9.6pc to 10.1pc.
Townsville lost 4,800 FTE but gained 2100 PTE for a net loss of 2,700 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 8.5pc to 8.6pc.
Cairns lost 3,800 FTE and lost 700 PTE for a total loss of 4,500 jobs whilst unemployment fell from 8.0pc to 7.9pc.
Brisbane – West lost 1,600 FTE and lost 1,600 PTE for a total loss of 3,100 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 5.8pc to 6.1pc.
Darling Downs – Maranoa lost 2,000 FTE but gained 1,100 PTE for a net loss of 900 jobs whilst unemployment fell from 3.7pc to 3.5pc.