Try hards: October labour force, Qld trend unemployment at 6.7pc, @Qldaah #qldpol

David Marler

David Marler

Queensland reporter at No Fibs
David is a full time carer for his son and in quiet times contributes to NoFibs. More at: http://nofibs.com.au/meeting-david-marler-nofibs-twitter-activist-by-griffithelects
David Marler
- 1 hour ago
David Marler
http://nofibs.com.au/meeting-david-marler-nofibs-twitter-activist-by-griffithelects

#QLDPOL WEEKLYTry hards: October labour force, Qld trend unemployment at 6.7pc

Tracking Queensland’s long term unemployment rate.

Ten News Qld: 35,800 more people are unemployed under the LNP.

Ten News Qld: 35,800 more people are unemployed under the LNP.

Queensland’s trend unemployment remained at 6.7 percent for October with 3,800 full-time jobs and 1,700 part time jobs disappearing for a total loss of 5,500 jobs. The jobless rate for September was also revised upward by Treasury from 6.4pc to 6.7pc. A total of 168,600 people are now unemployed in Queensland, up from 137,700 in March of 2012 when the LNP took office.

In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment rose from 6.3pc to 7.0pc. September’s data was also revised to 6.3pc after no data had been supplied from Treasury.

A flummoxed Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls struggled to explain Queensland’s deteriorating jobless figures but assured the media that the ‘unemployment numbers stimulate govt to try harder’ and the plan to lease assets after the next election would improve the numbers.

“We also know that Queensland’s economy is expected to grow at six per cent next year, which means thousands of new jobs and new income for Queenslanders,” he said.

As analysis by NoFibs showed last month, heavy losses in the mining sector are a contributing factor; “September labour force: Unemployment rises to 6.4pc, biggest trend FTE job losses”. Nicholls pointed to the losses also as a reason for October’s bad result.

Queensland statistical area level 4 (SA4)

Check your region: Queensland statistical area level 4 (SA4)

“The resources sector has taken a hit. The world coal price has been pushed down,” he said.

In 2012, the LNP pledged to deliver 4pc unemployment within six years of taking office but in a speech in February of 2014 to the CEDA economic and political overview, Nicholls changed this to a “stretch target”.

“We remain committed to our 4% unemployment target and make no apology for the stretch target,” he proclaimed.

Premier Campbell Newman was his usual upbeat self, promising ten thousand jobs from a new coal mine next year.

“The Adani Galilee coal project will see, will see ten thousand jobs being created in Queensland,” he said, once again placing Queensland’s future in the hopes of the resources sector.

Opposition Treasurer Curtis Pitt revealed that 35,800 (seasonally adjusted) more people were now unemployed than when the LNP came to power.

“The worst unemployment rate anywhere in Australia. It is the worst rate since 2003 whether it’s on seasonally adjusted or on trend terms,” he said.

The Queensland Council of of Unions has vowed to campaign in government MP’s electorates using a report from the “Small Area Labour Market” to break down unemployment to electorate. 

QCU president John Battams said the proposal to sell or lease state assests would only create more unemployment.

“Alarm bells should be ringing in places like Bundaberg, Townsville and Stanthorpe. Privatising assets is going to cut even more jobs,” he said.

The to further woes for Queensland, Brisbane shipbuilding company Aluminium Boats Australia announced it would be cutting 160 jobs in the wake of a fire at its’ facilities which destroyed the navy vessel HMAS Bundaberg earlier in the year.

Below is the long term data reflected in graphical form. All data is based on ‘Labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade.

All regional data comes from ‘Regional labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade.

Politicians frequently switch between trend and seasonally adjusted data based on which is more favourable to them. As reflected below, seasonally adjusted data tends to be more erratic than trend.

The acronyms FTE and PTE refer to full-time employment and part-time employment respectively.

Queensland’s trend unemployment rate rose from 6.3pc to 6.4pc.
Trend: This graph shows the Queensland monthly change in FTE & PTE to Qld unemployment rate.

Trend: This graph shows the Queensland monthly change in FTE & PTE to Qld unemployment rate.

The September trend figure for unemployment was revised up from 6.4pc to 6.7pc. In October there was a -0.2pc fall in FTE and a -0.2pc fall in PTE. Unemployment remained at 6.7pc.

Queensland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland's full time employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE) versus the Qld unemployment rate.

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland’s full time employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE) versus the Qld unemployment rate.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September was revised to 6.3pc after no data was supplied. For October, the unemployment rate rose to 7.opc. FTE rose 0.7pc but PTE fell -2.9pc.

Trend Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Trend: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

Trend: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

In trend terms for October, the trend loss of FTE was -3800 and PTE of -1700. Total loss of -5500 jobs.

Seasonally adjusted Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

Seasonally adjusted there were 11,800 FTE jobs for October but a loss of 20,600 PTE for a net loss of 8,800 jobs. (There was no data supplied for September job creation).

Trend Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Trend: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Trend: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Australia’s trend participation rate remained stable at 64.6pc. However, Queensland’s trend participation rate has hit a new low of 65.5pc, down from 65.9pc in September.

Seasonally adjusted Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Seasonally adjusted participation rate for Australia rose a notch to 64.6pc while Queensland rose two notches to 65.5pc.

Trend Queensland labour force to Australian labour force.
Trend: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland's Labour Force Vs Australia's Labour Force

Trend: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland’s Labour Force Vs Australia’s Labour Force

In terms of trend Labour force Australia rose by 6,400 persons but Queensland fell by 4,000 persons.

Employment growth, trend, yearly percentage change
Employment growth, trend, yearly % change

Employment growth, trend, yearly % change

Unemployment by region
QldRegionalUnemploymentTrend3.1

Worst Qld regional unemployment rates

This graph shows the worst unemployment regions of Queensland. Moreton Bay – North fell from 9.7pc to 9.6pc. Ipswich fell from 9.6pc to 9.3pc. Wide Bay rose from 8.8pc to 9.1pc. Cairns rose from 7.7pc to 7.9pc. The Sunshine Coast rose from 7.0pc to 7.1pc.

Unemployment rate by region
QldRegionalLabourForceUnemploymentRate3.1

Qld unemployment rate by statistical region.

With the regional average unemployment at 6.3pc, all of the following remain above the state average; Morton Bay – North 9.6pc, Ipswich 9.3pc, Wide Bay at 9.1pc, Cairns at 7.9pc, Townsville 8.0pc, Logan – Beaudesert 7.5pc and Sunshine Coast 7.1pc.

Annual change in employment by region
Annual change in employment by statistical area

Annual change in employment by statistical area

On an annual basis,

Logan – Beaudesert region lost 14,700 FTE & 4,2000 PTE for a total loss of 18,900 jobs with unemployment rising from 7.4pc to 7.5pc.

Wide Bay region lost 3,900 FTE and lost 3,100 PTE for total loss of 7,000 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 8.8pc to 9.1pc.

Townsville lost 5,500 FTE and lost 1,300 PTE for a total loss of 6,800 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 7.8pc to 8.0pc.

Cairns lost 6,000 FTE and lost 400 PTE for a total loss of 6,400 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 7.7pc to 7.9pc.

Brisbane – West lost 3,700 FTE but gained 1,700 PTE for a net loss of 1,900 jobs whilst unemployment remained at 5.5pc.

Darling Downs – Maranoa gained 100 FTE but lost 700 PTE for a net loss of 7,00 jobs whilst unemployment remained at 3.95pc.


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Comments

  1. If we accepted that Aus’s economy is affected by stuff beyond our control we could spare many column inches and government could get on with doing something that they can do something about – like looking after the unemployed, stimulating small scale employment initiatives and so on.