Gut busters – November Qld trend unemployment rises to 6.9pc, #qldpol: @Qldaah

David Marler

David Marler

Queensland reporter at No Fibs
David is a full time carer for his son and in quiet times contributes to NoFibs. More at: https://nofibs.com.au/meeting-david-marler-nofibs-twitter-activist-by-griffithelects
David Marler
- 42 mins ago
David Marler
https://nofibs.com.au/meeting-david-marler-nofibs-twitter-activist-by-griffithelects

#QLDPOL WEEKLYGut busters - November Qld trend unemployment rises to 6.9pc

Tracking Queensland’s long term unemployment rate.

ABC News Qld: Woorabinda Pastoral Company takes reins to combat Qld's youth unemployment.

ABC News Qld: Woorabinda Pastoral Company takes reins to combat Qld’s youth unemployment. Out at Woorabinda, in Queensland’s Central West employment zone of Fitzroy, the council owned Foleyvale station is attempting to curb the youth unemployment problem by encouraging young people to become station workers.

Premier Campbell Newman has vowed his government will ‘bust our gut’ to create more jobs in Queensland. The November monthly trend jobless rate rose from 6.8 percent to 6.9 percent while seasonally adjusted figure fell from a record 7.1pc to 6.9pc. The nation’s unemployment rate rose from 6.2pc to 6.3pc in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms.

It comes as Tim Nicholls attempted to explain the abysmal performance from last month as an incentive to ‘stimulate the government to try harder’. In 2012, the LNP pledged to deliver 4pc unemployment within six years of taking office but in a speech in February of 2014 to the CEDA economic and political overview Nicholls altered this to a “stretch target”.

“We remain committed to our 4pc unemployment target and make no apology for the stretch target,” he proclaimed.

Newman told the media this week, “I just say that we’re going to continue to work hard to rev up employment in this state, to ensure that anybody who wants a job can get a job.”

The trend employment fell by 5,500 people, a decline in jobs of -0.2pc, with a loss of 3,600 full-time jobs and 1,900 part-time jobs. It was Queensland’s third consecutive month of job losses following a fall in September of 2,900 and October of 5,500. A total of 171,600 people are now unemployed in Queensland, up from 137,700 in March of 2012 when the LNP took office and with the trend unemployment rate at 5.5pc.

The BrisbaneTimes led with “Queensland has mainland’s highest unemployment rate” and Amy Remeikis remarked, “a slowdown in gas construction projects, as the industry moves to the production phase, combined with a delay in new mining projects beginning and a downturn in the tourism industry have also contributed to the state’s rate.”

Unsurprisingly, The Courier Mail went into bat for the government, ignoring the trend figures and focusing on the seasonally adjusted fall by proclaiming, “there was better news in Queensland with the jobless rate falling from 7.1 percent in October to 6.9 per cent last month. That was the largest decrease in seasonally adjusted unemployment across the nation, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.”

Queensland statistical area level 4 (SA4)

Check your region: Queensland statistical area level 4 (SA4)

The trend participation rate, the number of people engaged in the workforce, fell again to 65.3pc, the lowest in a decade and the sixth consecutive fall since June; 66.5pc, 66.4pc, 66.0pc, 65.9pc, 65.5pc and 65.3pc respectively.

Below is the long term data reflected in graphical form. All data is based on ‘Labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade.

All regional data comes from ‘Regional labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade and generally follows a week behind the general data.

Politicians frequently switch between trend and seasonally adjusted data based on which is more favourable to them. As reflected below, seasonally adjusted data tends to be more erratic than trend. Gaps in seasonally adjusted data appear below due to glitches in the Australian Bureau of Statistics calculation methods.

The acronyms FTE and PTE refer to full-time employment and part-time employment respectively.

Queensland’s trend unemployment rate rose from 6.8pc to 6.7pc.

QldEmploymentFTPTvUETrend3.2

The October trend figure for unemployment was revised up from 6.7pc to 6.8pc. In November there was a -0.2pc fall in FTE and a -0.3pc fall in PTE. Unemployment rose from 6.8pc remained at 6.9pc.

Queensland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland's full time employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE) versus the Qld unemployment rate.

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland’s full time employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE) versus the Qld unemployment rate.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October was revised up to 7.1pc. For November, the unemployment rate fell from 7.1pc to 6.9pc. FTE fell 0.5pc but PTE rose -1.3pc.

Trend Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Trend: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

Trend: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

In trend terms for November, the trend loss of FTE was 3600 and PTE of 1900. A total loss of 5500 jobs.

Seasonally adjusted Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.

Seasonally adjusted, Queensland lost 8,100 FTE jobs for October but created 8,900 PTE for a net gain of 800 jobs. (Due to a glitch at the ABS, there was no data supplied for September job creation).

Trend Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Trend: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Trend: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Australia’s trend participation rate remained stable at 64.6pc. However, Queensland’s trend participation rate has fallen two notches to 65.3pc, the lowest rate in a decade.

Seasonally adjusted Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.

Seasonally adjusted participation rate for Australia rose a notch to 64.7pc while Queensland fell two notches to 65.3pc.

Trend Queensland labour force to Australian labour force.
    Trend: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland's Labour Force Vs Australia's Labour Force

Trend: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland’s Labour Force Vs Australia’s Labour Force

In terms of trend Labour force Australia rose by 11,800 persons but Queensland fell by 3,400 persons.

Employment growth, trend, yearly percentage change
Employment growth, trend, yearly % change

Employment growth, trend, yearly % change

Unemployment by region
Worst Qld regional unemployment rates

Worst Qld regional unemployment rates

This graph shows the worst unemployment regions of Queensland. Moreton Bay – North fell from 9.7pc to 9.6pc. Wide Bay rose from 8.8pc to 9.1pc. Cairns rose from 7.9pc to 8.1pc. The Sunshine Coast rose from 7.0pc to 7.1pc.

Unemployment rate by region
Qld unemployment rate by statistical region.

Qld unemployment rate by statistical region.

With the regional average unemployment at 6.4pc, all of the following remain above the state average; Moreton Bay – North fell from 9.7pc to 9.6pc, Ipswich fell from 9.3pc to 9.2pc, Wide Bay rose from 8.8pc to 9.1pc, Townsville rose from 8.0pc to 8.3pc, Cairns rose from 7.9pc to 8.1pc, , Logan – Beaudesert rose from 7.5pc to 7.9pc and Sunshine Coast rose from 7.0pc to 7.1pc.

Annual change in employment by region
Annual change in employment by statistical area

Annual change in employment by statistical area

On an annual basis,

Logan – Beaudesert region lost 14,200 FTE & 3,8000 PTE for a total loss of 18,000 jobs with unemployment rising from 7.5pc to 7.9pc.

Wide Bay region lost 4,200 FTE and lost 2,900 PTE for total loss of 7,100 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 9.1pc to 9.2pc.

Townsville lost 5,100 FTE and lost 700 PTE for a total loss of 5,800 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 8.0pc to 8.3pc.

Cairns lost 5,300 FTE and lost 900 PTE for a total loss of 6,100 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 7.9pc to 8.1pc.

Brisbane – West lost 3,100 FTE but gained 500 PTE for a net loss of 2,600 jobs whilst unemployment rose from 5.5pc to 5.7pc.

Darling Downs – Maranoa gained 1,500 FTE but lost 100 PTE for a net loss of 1,600 jobs whilst unemployment fell from 3.95pc to 3.8pc.


Support an independent media voice. Support No Fibs Citizen Journalism.
Monthly Donation



Comments


  1. Regional FTE and PTE numbers from QGSO are a bit of a curiosity. Can’t be derived directly from ABS data and no info provided on methodology. Have always assumed they are derived from census data adjusted for Queensland FTE/PTE but probably worth a more detailed question.