David Marler
Latest posts by David Marler (see all)
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Tracking Queensland’s long term unemployment rate.
Thursday marked the worst trend full-time employment (FTE) job losses of the Newman Government to date. The September labour force data revealed Queensland lost 4,600 FTE. It gained 1,700 part-time employment (PTE) resulting in a net loss of 2,900 jobs across the state.
The trend unemployment rate for August was revised down from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent. The September unemployment rate was up a notch to 6.4pc. Seasonally adjusted figures for labour force have not been supplied this month from Queensland Treasury and Trade with them noting;
Note: In the September 2014 edition of the Labour Force Survey, the ABS advised of significant issues relating to the seasonal adjustment of labour force estimates. The ABS observed different seasonal patterns in data for July, August and September 2014 than were evident in previous years. As a result, the ABS will suspend its seasonal adjustment process.
While the ABS has maintained its seasonally adjusted series, these data are the same as the original series for estimates from July 2014. This issue is expected to be resolved for the October 2014 Labour Force release.
Check your region: Queensland statistical area level 4 (SA4)
Central Queensland’s largest employer, BHP Billiton recently announced 700 workers would go across its metallurgical coal business, representing 8pc of its 6000 FTE staff at subsidiary BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA). Isaac Plains Coal Joint Venture also warned of hundreds of job losses at its open cut mine in the Bowen Basin.
In a recent ABC News Queensland bulletin, the Queensland Resources Council estimated that thousands of mining jobs have been lost across central Queensland over the last two years.
However, Queensland Premier Campbell Newman reassured the sector that, “coal is going to be needed for many, many decades to come.”
In a radio interview with @612Brisbane, Commonwealth Bank’s Chief Economist Michael Blythe said as mining construction transitions into exports, less workers are needed.
“Using LNG, as (an) example, basically for every ten construction workers you have on these projects, you only need one to come in in the morning to turn on the lights when they’re up and running,” he said.
“That’s why we really need those other sectors like residential construction to pick up to generate the new jobs.”
Below is the long term data reflected in graphical form. All data is based on ‘Labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade.
All regional data comes from ‘Regional labour force’ from Queensland Treasury and Trade.
Politicians frequently switch between trend and seasonally adjusted data based on which is more favourable to them. As reflected below, seasonally adjusted data tends to be more erratic than trend.
The acronyms FTE and PTE refer to full-time employment and part-time employment respectively.
Queensland’s trend unemployment rate rose from 6.3pc to 6.4pc.
Trend: This graph shows the Queensland monthly change in FTE & PTE to Qld unemployment rate.
The August trend figure for unemployment was revised down from 6.7pc to 6.3pc. In September there was a -0.3pc fall in FTE and a 0.2pc rise in PTE. Unemployment rose from 6.3pc to 6.4pc.
Queensland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland’s full time employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE) versus the Qld unemployment rate.
There was no seasonally adjusted data supplied for September unemployment.
Trend Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Trend: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.
In trend terms, Queensland lost 4,600 FTE, gained 1,700 PTE for a total loss of 2,900 jobs for September.
Seasonally adjusted Queensland job creation; FTE & PTE to total jobs.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the number of jobs created or lost per month, both Full Time Employment (FTE) and Part Time Employment (PTE). Total jobs growth is shown in green.
There was no seasonally adjusted data supplied for September job creation.
Trend Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Trend: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.
A slight fall in Queensland’s trend participation rate, down from 66.0pc to 66.9. Australia’s trend participation rate remained stabled at 64.6pc.
Seasonally adjusted Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate.
Seasonally adjusted: This graph shows the Queensland participation rate versus Australian participation rate by month.
There was no seasonally adjusted data supplied for September participation rate.
Trend Queensland labour force to Australian labour force.
Trend: This graph shows the monthly percentage change in Queensland’s Labour Force Vs Australia’s Labour Force
In terms of trend Labour force Australia rose by 10,200 persons but Queensland fell by 2,700 persons.
Employment growth, trend, yearly percentage change
Employment growth, trend, yearly {17ac88c265afb328fa89088ab635a2a63864fdefdd7caa0964376053e8ea14b3} change
Unemployment by region
Worst Qld regional unemployment rates
This graph shows the worst unemployment regions of Queensland. Moreton Bay – North rose from 9.5pc to 9.7pc. Ipswich remained on 9.6pc. Wide Bay remained on 8.8pc. Cairns fell from 7.9pc to 7.7pc. The Sunshine Coast rose from 6.9pc to 7.0pc.
Unemployment rate by region
Qld unemployment rate by statistical region.
With the regional average unemployment at 6.2pc, all of the following remain above the state average; Morton Bay – North 9.7pc, Ipswich 9.6pc, Wide Bay at 8.8pc, Cairns at 7.7pc, Townsville 7.8pc, Logan – Beaudesert 7.4pc and Sunshine Coast 7.0pc.
Annual change in employment by region
Annual change in employment by statistical area
On an annual basis,
Morton Bay – North region gained 600 FTE & 7,000 PTE for a total gain of 7,600 jobs with unemployment rising to 9.7pc.
Logan – Beaudesert region lost 16,400 FTE & 4,2000 PTE for a total loss of 20,700 jobs with unemployment stable at 7.4pc.
Townsville lost 6,300 FTE and lost 1,400 PTE for a total loss of 7,800 jobs whilst unemployment rose to 7.8pc.
Cairns lost 6,500 FTE and created 0 PTE for a total loss of 6,500 jobs whilst unemployment fell from 7.9pc to 7.7pc.
Wide Bay region lost 3,500 FTE and lost 3,700 PTE for total loss of 7,300 jobs whilst unemployment remained at 8.8pc.
Brisbane – West lost 4,100 FTE but gained 2,400 PTE for a net loss of 1,700 jobs whilst unemployment remained at 5.5pc.
Toowoomba lost 2,400 FTE but gained 1,300 PTE for a net loss of 1,100 jobs whilst unemployment remained at 4.9pc.
