IN THE LAST week of the last election I knew Labor had lost it. You could feel it, polls notwithstanding. This time I’m bouncing around, but when I dig deep I think, rather than feel, that Labor will get over the line.
I wrote last time:
“It should have been a landslide. A deeply divided, deeply cynical, deeply corrupt government incapable of concerted action on climate change, protecting the rorts and lurks of the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us, bereft of policy ideas or vision, is in the hunt.
It’s easy to play the blame game: a massive, hard-right media apparatus spreading poison and downplaying or lying about Labor policy; a press gallery aiding — even promoting — an outrageous image makeover by the Prime Minister and incapable of piercing his smug, diversionary approach to questioning; an opposition leader incapable of selling a vision, an absolute must when Labor chose a crazy-brave, big-target agenda, and a lawless Facebook-promoted fake Liberal story on imaginary death taxes.”
“I’m reliving the John Hewson experience: a big, bold, honest agenda destroyed by Paul Keating; and Trump — all word-salad salesmanship and aggression — winning in 2016.”
Looking back, 2019 marked the beginning of a realignment in Australian politics. Some big swings to the Coalition in Labor seats, and swings to Labor in blue ribbon seats.
As I discussed in a recent speech to the Balmain Institute on the blue ribbon independents, Labor’s post-election review noted: “Higher-income urban Australians concerned about climate change swung to Labor, despite the effect Labor’s tax policies on negative gearing and franking credits might have had on them.”
In 2019 Zali Steggall won Warringah with an 18.3% swing against Tony Abbott. Kerryn Phelps proved her by-election swing was not just a protest vote when she held onto 16.4% of her by-election swing, making Wentworth the Liberal’s most marginal Sydney seat. In other wealthy blue ribbon seats with a liberal independent choice this election, Bradfield recorded a 4.5% swing to Labor, North Sydney 4.3%, Mackellar 2.5%, Goldstein 4.9%, Curtin 6.4% and in Kooyong 7.1% to the Greens. I think two more liberal independents will be elected this time, maybe three.
And this time Labor has wedged Morrison on climate. Its policy has the support of the Business Council of Australia, the Australian Industry Group and the National Farmers Federation. Labor is in the centre of the debate – liberal independents want more action while the hard right threatens to derail even Morrison’s unlegislated target of net zero by 2050. Public opinion has moved too after unprecedented bushfires and floods proved not only that climate change is happening right now but that the Morrison Government was unprepared to help Australians mitigate its effects.
So we witness the extraordinary spectacle of a governing party split during an election campaign. The PM is banned from campaigning in blue ribbon seats under pressure and the Labor Party dares to try to win blue ribbon North Sydney in competition with liberal independent Kylea Tink and pushing hard to win blue ribbon Higgins in Melbourne and blue ribbon Ryan in Brisbane.
At the same time, Labor is trying hard to win back the central Queensland mining seat of Flynn.
So this election sees a realignment in full swing. Morrison has literally turned his back on traditional small l liberal voters, promoting a Captain’s Pick in Warringah to drag transexual politics into the campaign and flipping yet again on his Religious Discrimination Bill to again eliminate the protection of gay and trans students from expulsion in private schools. And almost without comment One Nation has preferenced the LNP in every Queensland seat in exchange for LNP preferences in the Senate.
The media press pack has again failed to penetrate Morrison’s robotic barging style and exploited the sheer humanness of Albanese who has tried to actually answer their questions.
It’s interesting that Labor has not tried to copy Morrison’s repeat game of ‘watch me do this, this and this”, and campaigned in a traditional manner as if politics is a serious business. I just don’t think most voters will fall for the same old #ScottyfromMarketing plays again, though TV news reporters remain entranced at the expense of issues reporting.
To me Morrison’s most important mistake was to reject outright a Federal Integrity Commission with teeth. Most Australians believe federal politics is now deeply corrupt and want it cleaned up. His government’s outrageous abuse of billions in discretionary grants to favour its marginal seats and Labor marginals it wants to win has also dismayed voters in safe seats seeing every night on TV that loyalty means being taken for granted.
So it’s Labor to win for mine, perhaps with confidence and supply granted by liberal independents, who Morrison has told in strong terms he won’t budge on an integrity commission or climate change.
In an election where the mainstream media has underperformed yet again on the issues that matter to Australians and where horse race coverage has, if anything, intensified, there are green shoots.
Overall, the liberal independents in the city and the regions have run positive campaigns staffed by hundreds of local volunteers, most who’ve never before participated in federal politics. They’ve organised public forums on the big issues and run un-stage managed community campaigns. Their candidate quality is off the charts, promising an injection of talent dedicated to service and good governance, not ambition and the party tribe. The refusal of many Liberal MPs to participate in candidates forums has been noted by voters.
Their presence has seen debates with Liberal MPs screened on Sky, as have several Labor v Liberal debates in marginal seats. And there has been much more on the ground reporting in key seats, particularly by The Age, which has covered Goldstein, Kooyong and Chisholm in depth on a daily basis. These developments have begun to dilute the dominance of presidential style campaigns and brought the concept of being a “Representative” of constituents back into play.
Whatever happens Saturday night, the big parties are on notice to at last encourage new members and attract top quality candidates outside the narrow party umbrella.
I think Labor wins this. Let us pray.